bones2097 Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 You have to use STATISTICS to calculate those 'odds'. NOTE: Bones 2097 is the only remaining villager yet to pick up a vote. ahem look at my prev post i was second to mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 lol I never did vote for tablet, it was sov both times lol. Anyway Im gonna vote for GorunNova, seeing as there aint a point in voting for anyone else has he is practically aready out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gathererhade Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Curiouser and curiouser... We now have 4 votes for GorunNova. So even if I don't vote for Gorun it would require TWO people to switch to save him. Now, given the votes so far, if GorunNova is a werewolf, then either: the other wolf has already been expelled from the village; or the other wolf has voted for Gorun to cover his own tracks. This, of course, assumes I am not a werewolf, but only TFMF, myself (and maybe the seer if he/she is still in the game) knows that for certain. But if GorunNova is not a werewolf I'm back to the arguments I made earlier about everyone else. AAArrrgggghhhhh. It's enough to turn your brain to mush. Do I just jump on the GorunNova bandwagon this time, or do I try to finger someone else I think may be a wolf - looking forward to the next round of voting (probably after I'm eaten)? I think I'll sit down for a few hours, do something else & see if my brain can work subconsciously to provide me with insight before I go to bed. BTW: Bones2097 - what I meant was no one has voted for you. Someone has voted for each of the other 5 of us left in the game, but the fickle finger of fate hasn't pointed at you. Yes, I do realise you have indeed voted this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFMF Posted February 4, 2007 Author Share Posted February 4, 2007 A wereolf cannot be killed by another werewolf...A werewolf can be voted out by another werewolf... Just over 8 hours remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megalith Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 things are hotting up in niteshire lol wonder if people will change votes to see if others follow suit say there are 2 wolves left and they both switch to someone else would others follow on the bandwagon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bones2097 Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 BTW: Bones2097 - what I meant was no one has voted for you. Someone has voted for each of the other 5 of us left in the game, but the fickle finger of fate hasn't pointed at you. Yes, I do realise you have indeed voted this round. Sshhhhhh! ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFMF Posted February 4, 2007 Author Share Posted February 4, 2007 2 hours remaining! Voting so far: GorunNova: 4 ([MM], TetsuoShima, neomaster, Bones2097) [MM]: 1 (GorunNova) I may have miscounted or missed a vote - please tell me if i have. Gathererhade is yet to vote.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TetsuoShima Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 hmm,... Looks like people all unanimously decided GorunNova looks mightily suspicious after the death of Hilander72. Except for himself and Gathererhade... Does this mean both of them are wolves, I wonder? If this trend continues, I figure GorunNova is a goner and next will be someones lunch (or dinner). It leaves only 5 people in the game after the vote among which there will be either both or one or no wolves. Since this is the third person to be voted out, out of 8 possible candidates, chances of it being the second wolf ar rather slim, chances of both wolves having made it past all voting rounds (after this round), are bigger than 50% (if I'm not mistaken). What I wonder about is that there was no response to my challenge to provide some leverage to change my vote into someone else? Does this mean there is none? Does this mean GorunNova hasn't been around since to rpovide it? Does it mean he doesn't care anymore (after two rounds in a row where there's been 'strong' voting in his direction)? I have no clue... So far I thus see no reason to change my vote and place my fate in the hands of fate and Hilander72's death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megalith Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 oh i do love a good Witchwerewolf hunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gathererhade Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Sorry. Fell asleep "thinking" about all this. So, I'll have to vote now before I go to work. :( Yep, GorunNova looks a goner, with little chance of a last minute reprieve, so an extra vote that way is superfluous, methinks. But I'm mighty suspicious of Neomaster at this point. If Gorun is a werewolf I have 2 strong suspects for the other one, and Neo is my frontrunner. Methinks his voting for Sov in the first two rounds was because Sov pegged him as a werewolf, and if Sov was the seer, then Neo needed him gone. If Sov wasn't the seer and just guessed correctly, Neomaster wouldn't know that, and had to get rid of him anyway. So, just to kick things along, looking to the next round and I'll vote for Neomaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GorunNova Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 No arguing can save me at this point... and I've been a bit busy this weekend, so I couldn't make many comments. Anyways, I kind of expected this result when Hilander got eaten. ^^' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Sorry. Fell asleep "thinking" about all this. So, I'll have to vote now before I go to work. :( Yep, GorunNova looks a goner, with little chance of a last minute reprieve, so an extra vote that way is superfluous, methinks. But I'm mighty suspicious of Neomaster at this point. If Gorun is a werewolf I have 2 strong suspects for the other one, and Neo is my frontrunner. Methinks his voting for Sov in the first two rounds was because Sov pegged him as a werewolf, and if Sov was the seer, then Neo needed him gone. If Sov wasn't the seer and just guessed correctly, Neomaster wouldn't know that, and had to get rid of him anyway. So, just to kick things along, looking to the next round and I'll vote for Neomaster. Lmao vote for me all you want lol, end of the day if you all read back I have hardly pushed or really argued that someone was a wolf, also ask yourself why would sov so early think I was the wolf lol... I was actually going to vote for gathererhade this round but poor GorunNova already had enough votes to be the next one to be kicked out and didnt want gathererhade to see the way I was going to vote but seeing as he has already started the next campaign then I am forced to say what my next move will be, should I be the wolf then surely I would eat you next!! (you watch the damn wolf or wolfs with get him next lol just my luck) lmao. for the strong arguements about who is the wolf i reckon that Gathererhade is a wolf,..but only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFMF Posted February 4, 2007 Author Share Posted February 4, 2007 Once again, due to studying, i haven't had a chance to create a story (and has delayed the voting process a bit) However Megalith has kindly made tonights eviction :) the villagers awoke the next morning shocked at the tragic mauling of hilander the night before and gathered in the town hall. accusations started flying and the mayor quietened down the crowd. 'Gentleman please, we dont want a mob mentality. We cant afford to evict any more people from the village who aren't werewolves' he pleaded. 'I say we look for crescent shaped tatoos' shouted a villager. 'Thats superstitious mumbo jumbo! exclaimed the mayor' 'We've tried it your way using logic and reasoning and people are still getting killed' exploded another villager. The villagers agreed and all started showing there arms and shoulders but no villagers had any such tattoo. GorunNova however had a tatoo of a dog on his forearm and immediately people started whispering. 'its not a dog its a wolf' was heard and the whispers became jeers. 'It's a tattoo of my dog rover who got ran over by a truck passing thru the village last year!' exclaimed GorunNova ' you must remember him he was a gentle dog who played on the village green' he pleaded 'No its a sign, he's the wolf... Kill him' shouted one of the villagers. A look of sheer panic ran across the face of GorunNova as he backed away from the approaching crowd and ran to the forest as fast as his legs could carry him. GorunNova has been banished from the village and is out of the game. Remember - i don't tell who is a wolf and who is a seer untill the end of the game, so although Megalith's story may give the impression that GorunNova was a wolf, he doesn't really know. Just thought i'd mention that in case you got any ideas ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megalith Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 oooooh is the game over? lol i think not :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tablet Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 oooooh is the game over? lol i think not :) well for us it is....starting to get very interresting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bones2097 Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 so who's on the menu... ahem i mean left alive.... ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TetsuoShima Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 yep, since TFMF said he'd say when the game was over, so it is not over yet, that must mean that of the 4 people remaining (5 actually, but 1 is allready dead, he just doesn't know it yet, maybe even me), either 2 are wolves, in which case the wolves will have won, or 1 is a wolf in which case the odds in the next round will be 3 to 1. This last option also means that next voting round, if the wolf is not found, then the wolves also win with high likelyhood, and if he is well then obviously the villagers win, that is all presuming there is only 1 wolf left (2nd option), since 2 wolves left (1st option) means certain victory for the wolves. I don't know the exact odds of every possibility, but there are 2 possibilities where the wolves win and only 1 where the villagers win. In general I'd say, it does not look good... 6 people left the game so far (7 by tomorrow) out of 11, that's over half of the population gone. One thing I wonder though, don't the wolves loose anyway, even if they win, I mean there will be no-one left to eat, so they'll die of starvation or lonelyness, right? Or do they infect the next village maybe... :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megalith Posted February 5, 2007 Share Posted February 5, 2007 dont drink water from out of werewolfs footsteps lol eating a werewolfs brain is another way to become a werewolf btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GorunNova Posted February 5, 2007 Share Posted February 5, 2007 dont drink water from out of werewolfs footsteps lol eating a werewolfs brain is another way to become a werewolf btw Nope... you'll only catch Bad Wolf Disease. ^^ *waits for the cabbages and tomatoes* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilander72 Posted February 5, 2007 Share Posted February 5, 2007 I know I could tease, taunt and then some, but I won't... Truce? :) Now, I'm curious about, who the other werewolf is? I have had my eyes on one of you for sometime by now... :-X And whoever ate me will be my prime target in the next village, no matter what! >:( If I'm really lucky I'll be the werewolf that eats first. ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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