gathererhade Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 Probably would have been a cleaner death if Hilander was using the toilet when attacked. ;D Hmmm. I will have to consult my spreadsheet... er the oracle to see if this death fits any patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFMF Posted February 3, 2007 Author Share Posted February 3, 2007 TFMF [Game Coordinator] Tablet (2 - banished) Megalith (3 - eaten) TetsuoShima MM S0V13T (4 - banished) Hilander72 (5 - eaten) neomaster GorunNova QueenSpock (1 - eaten) gathererhade bones2097 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 my vote goes toooo............arrrrrh i need to read back abit before I decide!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[MM] Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 Well , what can I say - This (to me) was the most likely outcome from the previous comments during the last set of voting. Bearing in mind mine and Higlander72's quite strong accusation of GorunNova , it created a situation where one of us was almost certain to get eaten next. About the kill itself : If GorunNova IS a wolf - perhaps he's getting desperate and figures he's got not much to loose at this point and chose to take out one of his biggest "enemies". OR If GorunNova is NOT a wolf - whoever is/are the Wolf(s) saw this as a golden opportunity to try and FRAME GorunNova and in the process get "2 free kills" (i.e. one kill and one false eviction) into the bargain.... OR Something completely different...(I have wild and un-sustainable ideas but nothing more) I don't think this kill in itself proves *anything* one way or another. As for my vote this time around - bearing in mind my votes so far have been late and ultimately useless , I'm gonna make my vote NOW. This recent kill aside , I still feel the comments made by GorunNova after he was accused by HighLander72 last time are still the "best" evidence I have seen of *anyone* being a Wolf. HighLander72's initial accusations were at best flimsy and full of holes , but for some reason , GorunNova's reply (to me) looked like someone who panicked and started wildly looking for excuses/someone else to blame. He made no effort to pull apart HighLander72's accusation (which I think could have been done quite easily) and instead relied on some (vague at best) distraction tactics to try and blame TetsuoShima for what came across to myself as a fabricated reason with even less grounds for it than HighLander72's one. Now , this line of thinking solely relies upon my own INTERPRETATION of what was written - and while is not conclusive in itself , I think it is *STILL* the most suspicious thing I have seen in this game to date. I ask all of you to go back a couple of pages and read through those posts again , form your own opinions. Then , hopefully , you will see for yourselves.... I VOTE FOR GorunNova. [MM] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilander72 Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 Now I can prove that I've seen a Werewolf. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gathererhade Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 The pattern changes for the weekend. [MM] votes first. OK people. The depressing news is... On random probabilities (ie someone hasn't really given the game away to this point), the 6 people we have left comprise 3.9333 villagers 1.575 wolves and 0.4917 of the seer In other words, it's likely there are 4 villagers and one wolf left, and then almost a 50/50 bet the last person is the seer or a wolf. Well, Hilander72, on what I read, it seems the only thing you saw was his teeth. ;D I now have my son's 18th birthday to prepare. I'll be back with a vote later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilander72 Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 The pattern changes for the weekend. [MM] votes first. OK people. The depressing news is... On random probabilities (ie someone hasn't really given the game away to this point), the 6 people we have left comprise 3.9333 villagers 1.575 wolves and 0.4917 of the seer In other words, it's likely there are 4 villagers and one wolf left, and then almost a 50/50 bet the last person is the seer or a wolf. Well, Hilander72, on what I read, it seems the only thing you saw was his teeth. ;D I now have my son's 18th birthday to prepare. I'll be back with a vote later. I have to mention this. You have to use STATISTICS to calculate those 'odds'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 One thing I am looking at is who is the most likey to be the wolf, is it the people that have argued alot the reason why they are voting for them to try and get others to also vote in line or are they just honestly trying to get rid of who they think are the wolfs, Secondly, we have the quite ones, the ones that hardly post anything so they get left alone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Megalith Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 One thing I am looking at is who is the most likey to be the wolf The wolf and not A wolf hmmmmm does neomaster know something we dont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulysses Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 One thing I am looking at is who is the most likey to be the wolf The wolf and not A wolf hmmmmm does neomaster know something we dont? No I dont lol...wolf or wolfs, but i would guess seeing as 50% of the people have gone that we would of nailed one of them by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bones2097 Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 Hummmm... in the first votes tab had the most with meg & sov joint second. tab was banished , and meg was eaten...... ::) in the second votes it was a tie between sov & gorun. sov was banned but Hilander was eaten.... why ??? he wasn't even elected this time... i canon only conclude that gorun wasn't eaten cause he doesn't like how he tastes.... ;D though i'll be kicking my self for not voting for MM cause s/he voted last twice...., andf now had a sudden change of heart tatics.. :o i'm gona dance with the devil and vote ...... Gorunova.... :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFMF Posted February 3, 2007 Author Share Posted February 3, 2007 Theory: If there are two wolves left, and a villager is voted out in the next round - the wolves will have practically won. On the other hand, if there is only one wolf left, this could potentially be the winning round for the villagers.... Tense stuff indeed. ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilander72 Posted February 3, 2007 Share Posted February 3, 2007 It looks like my death is going to be avenged. ;D :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GorunNova Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Damn... I don't know who to vote for. ;p... but I do know that Hilander being eaten does put me in a pretty bad position. ^^'. I have to wonder about the sudden focus on me and the convenient killing of Hilander... I vote for MM, and expect to be off to join Tablet soon. Edit: *gets his hiking boots ready!* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFMF Posted February 4, 2007 Author Share Posted February 4, 2007 A reminder to all remaining villagers: when adding your vote, please place the name of person you would like to banish in bold. It just makes it easier for me to identify who you are voting for when counting the votes. [b]name of villager you would like to vote for[/b] Thank you :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TetsuoShima Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 Okay, looking at the board and who's gone, who's still here and who's been voted out and who's been eaten, then we can be fairly certain the ones being eaten are not werewolves... this leaves us with 8 possible werewolf candidates out of a potential 11. 2 villagers have been voted out (werewolf or not?) and 2 of the 8 are werewolves. So there is about a 50/50 chance we have voted out a werewolf allready, given that nobody knows nobody, however, the werewolves know each other and so are more likely to protect each other from being voted out, this decreases then chance that we've allready voted out a werewolf, by how much... no idea really.... In any case, this leaves us with two paths of say 40/60 likelyhood up untill now and extrapolated to the next turn: 1. we have voted out a werewolf allready: then it now is 1 against 5, in this case we need not worry too much, since if we vote him out the game will be finished, if we don't vote him out, next game it will still be 1 against 3, which is still reasonable. 2. we have not voted out any werewolf yet: now the odds are 2 to 4, in this case we have grave reason for worry, since if we do not vote one out this turn, next turn it will be 2 against 2, which means a near certain loss and if we do vote one out this turn, we end up with 1 against 3, which were the worst odds in scenario 1... So to take the worst case scenario in consideration, it is imperative that a wolf is voted out this turn. Deciding who is a wolf is hard this time, in the previous turns, I voted largely based on the timing of the person I voted on. I also felt that it didn't really matter who I voted on, since there was nothing much to on, so I had to use something to base my vote on, however poor a reason 'timing' may be. Given what I said above, this turn it does matter who is voted on, since if we vote for the worng guy, we're all werewolf-fodder... That still does not make it any easier to decide, the Hilander72 vs. GorunNova arguement is probably going to be crucial. It can mean 2 things depending on what you read into each persons words. Either Hilander72 was right and GorunNova is a wolf, or somebody is taking advantage of the situation and is framing Hilander72's death on GorunNova. I think we can be fairly certain Hilander72 was not a wolf, that makes his arguement quite a bit more compelling, especially since he eemed to be quite adamant about his accusation, then again he could also have gone the S0V13T way of doing things and try to make a lot of noise in the hopes that people will not take you seriously. (It seems to me so far this strategy is not turning out so well for people using it, S0V13T voted out, Hilander72 dead). So that's what it comes down to for me atm, who do you believe. From what I see on the rest of the forum (most people in the game have acted mostly the same as they do in other parts of the forum, nobody has really surprised me (I think, maybe at the end of the game I'll have to change my mind)), I don't think Hilander72 would use the mentioned strategy above on purpose, so I figure he must have been on to something. Of course, there could have been other reasons for Hilander72 to act the way he did, but none come to mind atm (since he's obviously not a wolf) and wasn't driving attention away from himself, but rather towards himself. That's why for now I will vote GorunNova. If you want to change my mind, come up with compelling reasons for Hilander72 to act the way he did. (or something else that might convince me...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilander72 Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 One thing I am looking at is who is the most likey to be the wolf, is it the people that have argued alot the reason why they are voting for them to try and get others to also vote in line or are they just honestly trying to get rid of who they think are the wolfs, Secondly, we have the quite ones, the ones that hardly post anything so they get left alone!!! Let me guess... You accidentally stepped on something sharp and silvery? ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gathererhade Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 You have to use STATISTICS to calculate those 'odds'. Excel spreadsheet actually. It's an adaptation of one I did when I was collecting trading cards. I put in numbers and rarities of cards and it told me what I should have after buying a particular number of packs. The well collated packs would always be really close to the estimate. So, yeah, I'm anal that way. ;D So, GorunNova seems to be the scapegoat of choice this time round. In fact, unless someone who has already voted changes their vote, he's gone, as even if Neomaster & I both go for [MM] the last vote doesn't count rule operates to expel GorunNova. So, I'm gonna play "If it isn't GorunNova who is it?" Lets look one by one at the other 5: gathererhade: OK, regardless of whether I am a werewolf or not, all I can do is say "I'm not" and leave it at that. You'll believe me or not based on what I've done & said up to now - as it should be. Neomaster: The most interesting point here is that having posted his votes for Tablet near the midpoint of voting both times, this time, after I said I'd be interested to see who he goes for this round, he's suddenly voting last. Don't want me to see who you go for, Neo? Hmm. [MM]: Has voted for GorunNova the last 2 times. I just don't get a werewolf vibe out of [MM]. Thing is, I'm not sure why. Bones 2097: The quietest player I think. The best info we have for him is the way he votes. And it's interesting - 3 rounds, 3 different votes. Mind you, his first round pick was evicted, so that forces a different vote, but nevertheless, to avoid recriminations or looking like you want someone specific out, voting all over the place is a good strategy. And his comment on his 2nd vote that "i think weren't there suppose to be 2 wolves" seems very odd - deliberately feigning ignorance, perhaps? His arguments why he votes for someone haven't exactly been persuasive. A definite possibility he's a werewolf, methinks, especially if the 2 werewolves decided to play it one loud one quiet. NOTE: Bones 2097 is the only remaining villager yet to pick up a vote. TetsuoShima: Like with [MM], I just don't get any werewolf vibe here. But like Bones, his votes have all been different, with only one vote for an evicted villager. Decisions decisions. I'm torn between two. I think I'll wait a little & see what Neo votes. :-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilander72 Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 You have to use STATISTICS to calculate those 'odds'. Excel spreadsheet actually. It's an adaptation of one I did when I was collecting trading cards. I put in numbers and rarities of cards and it told me what I should have after buying a particular number of packs. The well collated packs would always be really close to the estimate. So, yeah, I'm anal that way. ;D Sounds like you're describing a random stat, but that alone won't give you an accurate prediction, since the non-random elements aren't accounted for. (non-random = the two werewolves' votes & seer's vote) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gathererhade Posted February 4, 2007 Share Posted February 4, 2007 but that alone won't give you an accurate prediction, since the non-random elements aren't accounted for. (non-random = the two werewolves' votes & seer's vote) Correct. But at least as far as the seer is concerned, while you can generate a stat for how likely it is they'll identify a werewolf each turn, there is no way you can accurately predict if the normal villagers will believe the seer and act accordingly. Some sort of percentage chance of that is needed & without a sample of players telling you if they believed when they played you won't get that. How good the seer is will have an effect on this percentage from game to game. Even if the seer knows the identity of a werewolf they may not vote for them to divert attention and gather more info. In a similar vein, while most times the werewolves will only vote for non-werewolves, that may not always be the case. If one of the werewolves has so many votes they're gone, the other may actually vote for them. Voting for someone else at that point won't achieve anything, but voting for the werewolf may divert suspicion. Basically, how well all players play will to some extent determine a lot of these percentages. Obvious werewolves will be spotted early. Really good ones can beat the odds. Same with seers. So, my conclusion (& also the easiest way out of it) was to assume those two factors would cancel each other out over time & ignore them. As I said the first time the stats assume we are all flailing around in the dark. But since you're curious... ;D The chance the seer has identified a werewolf to this point is 0.5053. That figure takes into account the chance of seer and werewolf elimination to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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